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Back to Issue: No.4, 2026

Erosion of the dollar anchor in international trade through the prism of new payment architectures

Vesna Svrtinov*

svrtinov.v@hotmail.com

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to assess changes in the currency structure of cross-border payments in 2022-2026 under the influence of the spread of alternative payment mechanisms in China, Europe and countries of the Global South. Comparative, statistical and documentary analyses were used to assess the dynamics of currency payments, the development of payment infrastructure and mechanisms for the use of national currencies. In China, the volume of cross-border payments in yuan increased from CNY 42.1 trillion in 2022 to CNY 52.3 trillion in 2023, and their share in payments for trade in goods from 18.0% to 24.8%; in the first half of 2024, the volume of such transactions reached CNY 30.6 trillion. In 2024, the Chinese cross-border interbank payment system processed payments worth CNY 175 trillion, and the accumulated volume of digital yuan transactions reached CNY 7 trillion. In Europe, the share of the euro in export invoicing was 59.7% in 2022 and 60.0% in 2025, while in imports it increased from 51.7% to 53.1%; the share of the euro in bond issuance in a currency foreign to the issuer reached 31.1%. In developing countries, public debt in 2024 amounted to USD 31 trillion, and net interest payments were USD 921 billion. It was found that alternative mechanisms expanded the possibilities of conducting individual cross-border transactions without dollar mediation, but did not change the leading position of the US dollar. The practical significance of the study lies in the possibility of using its results to assess the directions of diversification of international payments and the development of payment autonomy

Keywords

currency diversification; cross-border settlements; digital currencies; export invoicing; intermediation

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Suggested citation

Svrtinov, V. (2026). Erosion of the dollar anchor in international trade through the prism of new payment architectures. Foreign Affairs, 36(4), 113-127. https://doi.org/10.59214/ua.fa/4.2026.113
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