Back to Issue: No.6, 2024

The significance of the Taiwan question for contemporary international politics

Abstract

This study aimed to assess the impact of the Chinese Civil War (1945-1949) between the People’s Republic of China and Taiwan, as well as evaluate the current situation on the international stage regarding the conflict between China and Taiwan, the policies of neighbouring countries, and the United States of America, as a key actor in the Pacific region. The research examined the course of the war, key stages, outcomes, and the present situation in the context of the China-Taiwan conflict. The methodology involved a comparative analysis of official statements and memoirs of the participants in the events, as well as an examination of the decisions, strategies, and tactics of the governments of the PRC and Taiwan during and after the Civil War. The results indicated that the tensions surrounding Taiwan are one of the most significant issues in international politics, particularly in the context of global stability. The international community responds in varying ways: the USA and Japan actively support Taiwan, while the EU, South Korea, and India exhibit caution in their diplomatic stance. Although the EU supports the One-China policy, it has expressed concern over the rising tensions, urging the strengthening of economic and trade relations with Taiwan and increasing its participation in international organisations. The USA continues to support Taiwan. China’s military presence in the Taiwan Strait and its military exercises contribute to rising tensions, prompting the intensification of military cooperation between the USA, Japan, and other regional allies. Japan and South Korea, despite their economic ties with China, seek to maintain stability in the region, while India is strengthening its economic and unofficial relations with Taiwan in response to Chinese aggression. India is actively developing cooperation with Taiwan in technology and security, emphasising a pragmatic approach to the China-Taiwan conflict. The results suggest that the Chinese Civil War had a long-lasting impact on Taiwan’s political status, laying the foundation for the current conflict. The tensions between China and Taiwan reflect the complexity of global politics and the varying approaches of international actors to the conflict

Keywords

One-China policy; territorial conflict; geopolitical tension; Asia-Pacific region; regime legitimacy; regional security

References

[1] Ahmed, T., Ali, S., Mirza, S., Rahman, W., & Amir, D. (2020). Face-off between India and China in Galwan Valley: An analysis of Chinese incursions and interestsElectronic Research Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities, 2(3), 38-50.

[2] Aras, F., & Kandemir, E. (2023). Returning to quad: India’s search for regional security. Codrul Cosminului, 29, 401-424. doi: 10.4316/CC.2023.02.08.

[3] ASEAN. (2021). Economic integration and the investment climates in Asian countries: perspectives from Taiwan investors. Retrieved from http://surl.li/nqzuow.

[4] Brossat, A., & Ruiz Casado, J.A. (2023). Culture of enmity: The discursive struggle for Taiwan in the making of the new Cold War. Springer: New York. doi: 10.1007/978-981-99-4217-6.

[5] Carothers, C. (2023). Does external threat unify? Chinese pressure and domestic politics in Taiwan and South Korea. Foreign Policy Analysis, 19. doi: 10.1093/fpa/orac039.

[6] Chaewon, L., & Liff, A.P. (2022). The evolving relationship between South Korea and Taiwan in the context of China’s rise. Journal of Contemporary China, 32(143), 745-764. doi: 10.1080/10670564.2022.2113959.

[7] Chen, C.-K. (2018). Political economy of China-Taiwan relations: Origins and development. Lanham: Lexington Books. doi: 10.1080/9781498568050.

[8] Chinese military activity spurs Japan to move radar unit closer to Taiwan, Senkaku islands. (2022). Retrieved from https://newsonjapan.com/article/133828.php.

[9] Cordesman, A.H., & Kendall, J. (2016). Chinese military modernization and the Taiwan strait military balance. In Chinese strategy and military modernization in 2016: A comparative analysis (pp. 501-554). Washington: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

[10] Countries that recognize Taiwan in 2024. (2024). Retrieved from https://bubbleteaisland.com/2023/05/18/what- countries-recognize-taiwan-in-2023/.

[11] Dotson, J. (2023). Taiwan announces an increased defense budget 2024. Retrieved from https://globaltaiwan.org/2023/09/ taiwan-announces-an-increased-defense-budget-for-2024/.

[12] Duan, L. (2023). Contested memories of the past: The politics of history textbooks in Taiwan. ASIANetwork Exchange: A Journal for Asian Studies in the Liberal Arts, 28. doi: 10.16995/ane.8155.

[13] G7 Foreign Ministers’ statement on preserving peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. (2023). Retrieved from https://www.state.gov/g7-foreign-ministers-statement-on-preserving-peace-and-stability-across-the-taiwan- strait/.

[14] Gartner, S.S., Huang, C., Li, Y., & James, P. (2021). Taiwan in historical perspective. In Identity in the shadow of a giant. (pp. 21-42). Bristol: Bristol University Press. doi: 10.1332/policypress/9781529209877.003.0002.

[15] Hossain, M. (2023). The South Korea – North Korea peaceful reunification initiative: An analysis. Perspectives in Social Sciencedoi: 10.59146/PBDHV12A3.

[16] Hsiao, R. (2023). Taiwan’s 2024 elections. Retrieved from https://www.rand.org/pubs/external_publications/EP68636.html.

[17] Hung, P.-Y. (2022). Interlacing China and Taiwan: Tea production, Chinese-language education and the territorial politics of re-sinicization in the northern borderlands of Thailand. The China Quarterly, 250, 417-439. doi: 10.1017/S0305741022000674.

[18] International Trade Administration. (2023). China – U.S. export controls. Retrieved from https://www.trade.gov/ country-commercial-guides/china-us-export-controls.

[19] Jacob, J.T. (2022). A potential conflict over Taiwan: A view from India. The Washington Quarterly, 45(3), 147-162. doi: 10.1080/0163660X.2022.2126585.

[20] Japan External Trade Organization. (2023). Japanese trade and investment statistics. Retrieved from https://www.jetro. go.jp/en/reports/statistics.html.

[21] Jash, A. (2023). India-China border: A key flashpoint in the Indo-Pacific. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/ publication/374590285_India-China_Border_A_Key_Flashpoint_in_the_Indo-Pacific.

[22] Jung, E. (2023). The “Chip 4 Alliance” and Taiwan – South Korea relationsGlobal Taiwan Brief, 8(18).

[23] Law of USA No. H.R. 815 “On Amend Title 38, United States Code, to Make Certain Improvements Relating to the Eligibility of Veterans to Receive Reimbursement for Emergency Treatment Furnished through the Veterans Community Care Program, and for other Purposes”. (2024, April). Retrieved from https://www.congress.gov/118/ bills/hr815/BILLS-118hr815eah.pdf.

[24] Lawrence, D.F. (2023). Defending a mock invasion of Taiwan signals shift for army special operations after years of counterinsurgency. Retrieved from https://www.military.com/daily-news/2023/04/29/defending-mock-invasion-of- taiwan-signals-shift-army-special-operations-after-years-of.html.

[25] Liff, A.P., & Lin, D. (2022). The “One China” framework at 50 (1972-2022): The myth of “Consensus” and its evolving policy significance. The China Quarterly, 252, 977-1000. doi: 10.1017/S0305741022000797.

[26] Lin, E., & Keng, S. (2023). China’s policy toward Taiwan in the Xi era. In W. Lee (Ed.), Protests, pandemic, and security predicaments (pp. 251-276). Cham: Palgrave Macmillan. doi: 10.1007/978-3-031-33776-5_8.

[27] Liu, M. (2024). The “Gray Zone” conflicts in China-U.S. Relations: From a geopolitical perspective. International Journal of Education and Humanities, 12(1), 36-38. doi: 10.54097/h1kd6272.

[28] Maizland, L. (2024). China-Taiwan relations: Why tensions are Rising. Retrieved from https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/ china-taiwan-relations-tension-us-policy-biden.

[29] Ministry of Defence of Japan. (2024). Defence programs and budget of JapanOverview of FY2022 budget. Retrieved from https://www.mod.go.jp/en/d_act/d_budget/pdf/20220420.pdf.

[30] Ministry of National Defence Taiwan. (2024). PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. Retrieved from https://www.mnd.gov.tw/english/Publish.aspx?title=News%20Channel&SelectStyle=Military%20News%20 Update%20&p=83239.

[31] Ministry of National Defense Taiwan. (2023). PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. Aug. 30, 2023. Retrieved from https://www.mnd.gov.tw/English/Publish.aspx?title=News%20Channel&SelectStyle=Military%20 News%20Update%20&p=81901.

[32] Nachman, L., Rigger, S., & Kar Ming Chan, N. (2023). Taiwanese perceptions of conflict. Retrieved from https://www. brookings.edu/articles/taiwanese-perceptions-of-conflict-continuity-in-the-face-of-change/Continuity in the face of change.

[33] National Security Strategy of Japan. (2022, December). Retrieved from https://www.cas.go.jp/jp/ siryou/221216anzenhoshou/nss-e.pdf.

[34] Observatory of Economic Complexity. (n.d.). South Korea and China: Bilateral trade profile. Retrieved from https://oec. world/en/profile/bilateral-country/kor/partner/chn.

[35] Park, J. (2022). Chairman’s statement of the 29th ASEAN regional forum. Retrieved from https://asean.org/wp-content/ uploads/2022/08/FINAL-Chairmans-Statement-of-the-29th-ARF.pdf.

[36] Pelosi, N. (2022). Pelosi, Congressional delegation statement on visit to Taiwan. U.S. House of Representatives. Retrieved from https://pelosi.house.gov/news/press-releases/pelosi-congressional-delegation-statement-on-visit-to-taiwan.

[37] Resolution of European Parliament No. 2019/2183(INL) “Recommendations to the Commission on Revision of European Works Councils Directive”. (2023, February). Retrieved from https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/ document/TA-9-2023-0028_EN.html.

[38] Rocina, J.A., & Rocina, R. (2023). India’s look East policy: A dynamo of change in the Asian economic and political landscape. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/373642513_INDIA’S_LOOK_EAST_POLICY_A_ DYNAMO_OF_CHANGE_IN_THE_ASIAN_ECONOMIC_AND_POLITICAL_LANDSCAPE.

[39] Sadibaqosev, H. (2024). The Taiwan problem in China-USA relations. The American Journal of Political Science Law and Criminology, 6(5), 10-15. doi: 10.37547/tajpslc/Volume06Issue05-03.

[40] South Korean president reiterates adherence to one-China principle. (2024). Retrieved from https://english.www.gov. cn/news/202405/26/content_WS66533442c6d0868f4e8e77b3.html.

[41] State Council of the People’s Republic of China. (2022). China summons US ambassador over Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. Retrieved from https://english.www.gov.cn/statecouncil/ministries/202208/03/content_WS62e9cc8fc6d02e 533532ed0c.html.

[42] Taiwan Relations Act of USA No. H.R. 2479. (1979, October). Retrieved from https://www.congress.gov/bill/96th- congress/house-bill/2479.

[43] U.S. Department of State. (2023). U.S.-Taiwan Working Group Meeting on International Organizations. Retrieved from https://www.state.gov/u-s-taiwan-working-group-meeting-on-international-organizations-2/.

[44] United Nations General Assembly Resolution No. 2758 (XXVI) “Restoration of the Lawful Rights of the People’s Republic of China in the United Nations”. (1971, October). Retrieved from https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/654350.

[45] United States Trade Representative. (2024). The People’s Republic of China. Retrieved from https://ustr.gov/countries- regions/china-mongolia-taiwan/peoples-republic-china.

[46] Vanvari, N.,& Tan, A. (2021). India, Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific: Economic-security strategic partnership and expected utility theory. Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs, 8(1), 98-126. doi: 10.1177/2347797021992531.

[47] Wallace, L.G. (2023). Japan’s new national security posture and Taiwan’s security: Japan’s constitution is not a suicide pactGlobal Taiwan Brief, 8(1).

[48] Wiratama, D. (2017). The golden age of China-Taiwan relations: The explanation and its future. Jurnal Sentris, 1(1), 69-80. doi: 10.26593/sentris.v1i1.4130.69-80.

[49] Xu, L. (2024). The cause of the current conflict between China and the United States. Lecture Notes in Education Psychology and Public Media, 41(1), 217-222. doi: 10.54254/2753-7048/41/20240758.

[50] Yasuyuki, T. (2023). Semiconductors and geopolitics: Japan-Taiwan cooperation deepens amid global tensions. Retrieved from https://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/d00907/.

[51] Zhang, K. (2023). War and peace in the Taiwan Strait. Political Science Quarterly, 138(4), 622-623. doi: 10.1093/psquar/ qqad090.

[52] Zhang, Z. (2024). War of narratives: A concentric dissection of China’s Taiwan policy. Groundings Undergraduate Academic Journal, 15, 130-145. doi: 10.36399/GroundingsUG.15.121.

Suggested citation

Skorokhod, Y., & Sapsai, А. (2024). The significance of the Taiwan question for contemporary international politics. Foreign Affairs, 34(6), 100-109. https://doi.org/10.59214/ua.fa/6.2024.100
Submit an article