Moldova as a site of hybrid war from Russia: myth or reality? (or on some aspects of strengthening the Russian presence in the Republic of Moldova)

Issue: UA Foreign Affairs, №3,2020

Doi: 10.46493/2663-2675-2020-3-4

Authors:

Mykhailo Kharyshyn, Adviser of the Department for Relations with State Bodies of the Department of Document Circulation and Digitization of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine,

Kharyshyn M. Moldova as a platform for hybrid warfare: myth or reality (some aspects of the strengthening of Russia’s presence in the Republic of Moldova) Russia’s violation of the permanent system of international relations formed after World War II, the creation of managed conflict situations (by the Russian Federation) in the post-Soviet space and their "settlement" trough Russian mediation, etc., require a thorough and comprehensive study of the nature of emerging challenges, the defining of their main criteria and the ways of their solutions. The article presents a unique experience of the Republic of Moldova, which has been in disintegration conditions for almost 30 years. In the author’s opinion, the attempts of its leaders to solve urgent problems with the help of Russia and the geopolitical effects of such efforts should set a clear example for Ukraine, which is currently in a state of war unleashed by the Kremlin. The purpose of the article is to carry out a deep and comprehensive analysis of the situation in Moldova and its possible repercussions in the future for both the Republic of Moldova and neighboring Ukraine. The paper identifies the origins of the conflict situation in the Transnistrian region of Moldova, the causes of the country's disintegration, the main stages and the influence of the permanent "settlement" of the Transnistrian problem under the scenario of Moscow on the overall situation in the country. The article analyzes the current state of political, economic, demographic, interdenominational, ethno-national, humanitarian and media situation in the Republic of Moldova as a result of the country's geopolitical and economic dependence on the Russian Federation. The article informs about the search by the Moldovan governmental circles for the optimal ways of the reintegration of Moldova, the overcoming of a deep and comprehensive crisis that has taken over all spheres of the country's life. The scientific justification of the Russian Federation's "right" to use force or coercion to peace of other countries for the protection and safety of its citizens abroad occupies an important place in the article. The work presents the practical results of the formation of a "real" basis for the use of military force by Russia on the territory of the Republic of Moldova. In this context, the main possible scenarios for the further development of Moldova as a state, their impact on the geopolitical situation in Ukraine and in the region as a whole are modeled by the author. It contains concrete proposals on the Ukraine’s countermeasures to prevent the negative aspects for Ukraine in case of further similar development of the situation in Moldova.

Keywords : conflict, settlement, legitimateness, protection of citizens by the state, military force, preventive measures, Moldova, Transnistria, Russia, Ukraine

Language of the article : Ukrainian

The date of online posting : 20.04.2020

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