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Back to Issue: No.2, 2026

Impact of US sanctions policy towards China on the structure of international trade and the resilience of global supply chains

Ming Li

Abstract

The research relevance is determined by the transformation of the structure of international trade as a result of the United States sanctions policy towards China, accompanied by the relocation of production, risks of fragmentation of global supply chains, and the need to determine its consequences for the stability of the world economy and the balance of power. The study aimed to determine how the US sanctions policy towards China is changing the structure of international trade flows and affecting the stability of global supply chains. To achieve this goal, the following methods were used: theoretical analysis of the factors shaping the sanctions policy; a comparative analysis using the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index calculated for China, Mexico, Canada, Japan, Germany and South Korea; and a SWOT analysis of the implementation of sanctions restrictions on the economy of the People’s Republic of China and the architecture of international trade. The study identified key factors in the introduction and intensification of sanctions pressure on China by the United States: technological and economic competition, national security considerations and defence risks, human rights violations and humanitarian issues, as well as geopolitical rivalry between countries. A comparative analysis of the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index showed that the introduction of US sanctions led to a decrease in the concentration of bilateral trade between the United States and China, with a simultaneous increase in the role of third countries, mainly Mexico. The study determined that although increased sanctions pressure limits China’s access to technology and slows down its expansion in the global market, it also motivates the search for ways to achieve technological self-sufficiency and geographical diversification of supply chains. The results of the study can be used to determine the impact of economic sanctions on all participants in the process and to find alternative ways to effective international cooperation and sustainable development

Keywords

fragmentation; circular economy; export; import; sustainable development; strategic planning

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Suggested citation

Li, M. (2026). Impact of US sanctions policy towards China on the structure of international trade and the resilience of global supply chains. Foreign Affairs, 36(2), 38-46. https://doi.org/10.59214/ua.fa/2.2026.38
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