Geopolitical strategies in the Russian-Ukrainian war (2022 – first half of 2024)

Vasyl Pasichnyk

Geopolitical strategies in the Russian-Ukrainian war (2022 – first half of 2024)

Vasyl Pasichnyk

Abstract

The Russian factor poses a real threat to the national security not only of Ukraine, but also to the entire democratic West and the entire free world. However, none of these countries and international organisations has an effective strategy to neutralise it. In 2014, the Russian Federation (RF) launched a “hybrid war” against Ukraine, annexing Crimea and part of the Donbas. The Russian Federation was not punished for its aggression, which prompted it to launch a large-scale war against Ukraine in February 2024. The heroic resistance of the people of Ukraine, the professionalism of the Ukrainian army, and the help of the West made it possible to inflict heavy defeats on Russia in 2022. However, by rethinking strategic miscalculations and the reasons for the defeats of 2022-2023, the Russian Federation has put its economy on a military track and mobilised all its resources to wage war...

Keywords

Special opinion

References

[1] A conversation with Henry Kissinger. (2023). The Economist. Retrieved from https://www.economist.com/kissinger- transcript.

[2] Agreement on Security Measures for the Russian Federation and the Member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Draft). (2021, December). Retrieved from https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/rso/nato/1790803.

[3] Arkin, W. (2023). Exclusive: The CIAʼs blind spot about the Ukraine War. Newsweek. Retrieved from https://www. newsweek.com/2023/07/21/exclusive-cias-blind-spot-about-ukraine-war-1810355.html.

[4] Bell, T. (2022). Third Empire: Fantasy novel predicted Russian invasion. Retrieved from http://flibusta.site/b/490314.

[5] Clover, S. (2017). Black wind, white snow. A new dawn of the national idea. Retrieved from https://www.nato.int/cps/uk/ natohq/official_texts_17120.htm.

[6] Coffey, L., & Rough, P. (2024). A strategy of courage: The next phase of the Russia-Ukraine War. Retrieved from http:// media.hudson.org.s3.amazonaws.com/Rough+Coffey+A+Strategy+of+Courage.pdf.

[7] Dubynyanskyi, M. (2024). In search of lost trust. Retrieved from http://surl.li/ixrllo.

[8] Dugin, O. (1999). Fundamentals of geopolitics. Retrieved from https://grachev62.narod.ru/dugin/chapt04.htm.

[9] Factory or front line? Ukrainian businesses fight to retain workers. (2024). Retrieved from https://www.ft.com/content/97b06dfd-c2b2-4523-90df-2f2c98f087ba.

[10] Felshtinskyi: The Third World War began on February 24. Ukraine is just the beginning. (2022). Retrieved from https://gordonua.com/news/war/felshtinskiy-tretya-mirovaya-voyna-nachalas-24-fevralya-ukraina-tolko- nachalo-1610814.html.

[11] Felshtynskyi, Yu., & Stanchev, S. (2022). The Third World War: The battle for Ukraine. Kyiv: Our format.

[12] General Wesley Clark: Failures and successes of American policy in Ukraine from the handover of Crimea to 2024. A new era for the USA. (2024). Retrieved from https://hvylya.net/interview/288230-general-uesli-klark-provaly-i-uspehi-amerikanskoy-politiki-v-ukraine-ot-sdachi-kryma-i-do-2024-goda-novaya- era-dlya-ssha.

[13] Haass, R., & Kupchan, Ch. (2023a). The West needs a new strategy in Ukraine. A plan for getting from the battlefield to the negotiating table. Retrieved from https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/russia-richard-haass-west-battlefield-negotiations.

[14] Haass, R., & Kupchan, Ch. (2023b). Redefining success in Ukraine. A new strategy must balance means and ends. Retrieved from https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/redefining-success-ukraine.

[15] Illarionov, A. (2023). Five main figures of US military aid to Ukraine: 49 – 40 – 17 – 6 – 0. Retrieved from https://aillarionov.livejournal.com/1375798.html.

[16] In Hungary, at the parliamentary level, they openly talked about claims to Transcarpathia in case of Ukraineʼs defeat in the war with Russia. (2024). Retrieved from https://zakarpattya.net.ua/News/232152-V-uhorshchyni- na-parlamentskomu-rivni-vidkryto-zahovoryly-pro-pretenzii-na-Zakarpattia-v-razi-porazky-Ukrainy-u-viini-z-rosiieiu.

[17] Khmelnytska, V. (2022). “After winter, the end of the conflict will begin”: Budanov made a forecast for 2023. Retrieved from https://tsn.ua/ato/pislya-zimi-pochnetsya-zavershennya-konfliktu-budanov-zrobiv-prognoz-na-2023-rik-2170252.html.

[18] Ladogin, O. (2021). Putinʼs message: Peace at the expense of Russia and on the ruins of Russia – ended. Retrieved from https://russtrat.ru/analytics/22-dekabrya-2021-0010-7741.

[19] Memorandum on Security Guarantees in Connection with the Accession of Ukraine to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. (1994, December). Retrieved from https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/998_158#Text.

[20] North Atlantic Treaty. (1949, April). Retrieved from https://www.nato.int/cps/uk/natohq/official_texts_17120.htm.

[21] Novak, A. (2021). How did the evil empire rise? Experience of Central and Eastern Europe. Kyiv: Spirit and letter.

[22] Parakhonsky, B., & Yavorska, G. (2024). The Russian war against Ukraine as a trigger for changes in international security: Basic narratives. Kyiv: National Institute of Strategic Studies.

[23] Pashkov, M. (2024). Foreign policy of Ukraine in the context of geopolitical processes. Retrieved from https://razumkov. org.ua/images/2024/02/29/2024-PAKT-5.pdf.

[24] Pavlyuk, O. (2024). The Polish Seimas adopted a resolution on the occasion of the 81st anniversary of the Volyn tragedy. Retrieved from https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2024/07/28/7191050.

[25] Putin has warned the West that it is ready for nuclear war. (2024). Retrieved from https://www.eurointegration.com. ua/news/2024/03/13/7181612.

[26] Putin on nuclear war: We will go to heaven, and they will simply die. (2018). Retrieved from https://news.liga.net/ world/news/putin-o-yadernoy-voyne-my-popadem-v-ray-a-oni-prosto-sdohnut.

[27] Rauch, J. (2024). The world is realigning. An emerging axis of resistance confronts the liberal alliance. Retrieved from https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/07/russia-china-nato-axis-resistance/678831.

[28] Solovei: Where Putin hid his family, when he is ready to launch a nuclear strike, will they close YouTube. (2022). Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EzmT31RQfN0.

[29] Treaty Between the Russian Federation and the United States of America on Security Assurances (Draft). (2021, December). Retrieved from https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/rso/nato/1790818.

[30] Trofimov, Y. (2024). High-tech American weapons work against Russia – until they donʼt. The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved from https://www.wsj.com/world/us-weapons-russia-ukraine-0eed240c.

[31] Ukraine of victory will be a country worthy of its heroes – the Presidentʼs speech at the plenary session of the Verkhovna Rada on the occasion of the 27th anniversary of the adoption of the Constitution. (2023). Retrieved from https://www.president.gov.ua/news/ukrayina-peremogi-bude-krayinoyu-gidnoyu-svoyih-geroyiv-vist-83869.

[32] Ukraineʼs commander-in-chief on the breakthrough he needs to beat Russia. General Valery Zaluzhny admits the war is at a stalemate. (2023). The Economist. Retrieved from https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/11/01/ukraines- commander-in-chief-on-the-breakthrough-he-needs-to-beat-russia?itm_source=parsely-api.

[33] Vyatrovych: The “Volyn resolution” of the Seimas is “an expression of regret for the lost territories”. (2016). Radio Svoboda. Retrieved from https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news/27873818.html.

[34] Weaver, K., & Stogne, A. (2024). Russiaʼs surprising consumer spending boom. Retrieved from https://www.ft.com/ content/3e2b2e63-082e-4058-ba92-dea580d4f40c.

[35] Wgura, K., & Kuisz, J. (2023). Poland was Ukraineʼs staunchest ally. Why is it now turning into a bitter rival? Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/oct/06/poland-ukraine-ally-rival-war-nationalist-election.

[36] Why Americaʼs far right and far left have aligned against helping Ukraine. (2022). Retrieved from https://foreignpolicy. com/2022/07/04/us-politics-ukraine-russia-far-right-left-progressive-horseshoe-theory.

[37] Zhigalkin, Yu. (2023). Will there be retribution for the war? The US calls for confiscating Russiaʼs assets. Retrieved from https://www.svoboda.org/a/posleduet-li-rasplata-za-voynu-v-ssha-prizyvayut-konfiskovatj-aktivy-rossii/32374712.html.

Suggested citation

Pasichnyk, V. (2024). Geopolitical strategies in the Russian-Ukrainian war (2022 – first half of 2024). Foreign Affairs, 34(6), 15-22. https://doi.org/10.59214/ua.fa/6.2024.15